enter email address

 
 
 


 


AEI-Brookings Joint Center Policy Matters 05-32

Costs and Benefits of Regulating Mercury. Ted Gayer and Robert W. Hahn. November 2005.

In our study, we estimated the costs and benefits of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) power plant mercury regulation. To estimate the benefits of mercury reduction, we considered each link in the pathway, including the reduction of emissions from U.S. power plants; reductions in mercury deposition; reductions of methylmercury in U.S. freshwater and marine fish; reductions of methylmercury consumption from U.S. fish by U.S. residents; reductions of methylmercury in U.S. women of childbearing age; and IQ improvements in U.S. children. For each link, we used the best available evidence and, if anything, tended to err on the side of overstating benefits. Only at the end did we monetize estimates of IQ improvements, based on a study of parental willingness to pay for IQ increases through chelation.

 

Zeller and Booth contend that our estimate of the benefits of mercury reduction is “grossly understated” based on their claim that our estimate of the value of an IQ point is flawed. They cite a study by Trasande et al. (1) claiming that benefits of mercury reduction are $1.3 billion per year. Unfortunately, they are comparing apples with oranges. The $1.3 billion estimate (1) is for the benefits of eliminating all U.S. power plant mercury emissions. Zeller and Booth apply this annual measure of complete elimination of power plant mercury emissions to each year from 2005 to 2020. It is incorrect to compare the costs of EPA’s regulation that eliminates a fraction of the power plant emissions to the benefits of eliminating all power plant emissions of mercury (which would cost considerably more to achieve).

 

Zeller and Booth suggest that the monetized benefits we use for IQ may be understated. We agree that the willingness-topay numbers for IQ may understate the benefits of IQ. The value of an IQ point suggested by Trasande et al. (1) is about an order of magnitude greater than our estimate. However, as we noted in our Letter, using their estimate does not change our finding that the costs of the regulation are likely to exceed benefits.

 

Zeller and Booth’s claim of mercury’s detrimental effects might be overstated. They cite Grandjean et al.’s study (2) of the Faroe Islands to support their claim that the detrimental effects of mercury are “known.” They do not mention a study of the Seychelles (3) that did not find evidence of such a link and a study in New Zealand (4) that found mixed evidence. Even Grandjean et al. (2) found mixed results for the relationship between mercury and IQ scores. Nonetheless, we used conservative estimates of the IQ-mercury relationship even when they are not statistically different from zero. We think that policy-makers should design regulations for controlling mercury emissions so that expected benefits exceed expected costs. The current approach fails that test.

Ted Gayer is a professor at the Public Policy Institute, Georgetown University. Robert W. Hahn is a 
co-founder and director of the American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies.

This response appeared in Science Magazine, Volume 310, November 4, 2005.

For related material, please see the following links:

Letter by Zeller and Booth to Science Magazine (subscription required)

The original letter by Ted Gayer and Robert Hahn,
"Regulating Mercury: What's at Stake?" published in Science Magazine. A similar version appears on the AEI-Brookings Joint Center's website.


Back


 
Post comments

View all comments